USC 31, Penn St. 7 at the half!

Well, it seems that my 34-13 prediction was a bit conservative, especially in regards to USC's offensive output. Penn St. would have to throw a virtual shutout to keep USC from scoring the 34 points I predicted.

It doesn't really surprise me that USC has taken charge and opened up a wide lead, but I thought Penn St. would hold their own for most or all of the first half, with USC taking charge in the second half.

A few big problems have emerged for Penn St.:

1. They have made critical mistakes in key situations, including a couple of silly penalties (offsides on the fumble recovery, personal fouls near the sidelines, etc.) That's probably partly due to their inexperience, along with the fact that they're facing a more experienced and, arguably, more talented foe.

2. Losing RB Evan Royster, who was trying to be fit with a brace, is a major blow for Penn St., as this will likely make them more one-dimensional. And while the large deficit might necessitate them throwing more in the second-half, the fact that Penn State's running attack will be largely non-existent without Royster will just aid USC's ability to depict when Penn St. will pass, and likely enable USC to be able to stop it more easily.

3. Penn St. is starting to lose their composure due to the poor first half they have played. That's why the personal fouls have been occurring, which will only hurt Penn St.'s efforts that much more.

For Penn St. to have any realistic chance to turn this game around, they need to come out strong early in the 3rd quarter and eliminate the silly mistakes they've been making. Additionally, their defense needs to play the best ball they've played this year - they can't keep allowing USC to drive the field and score TDs at will. Think about this - Penn State has nearly given up as many points (31) in one half as Ohio State gave up in the whole game against USC back in September (35). Allowing field goals at this point may be too much, but it would be a start, at least.

Personally, I think it's a question of how large the victory will be for USC; while I think Penn State could show some life early in the third quarter, it's very rare for USC to allow a team they have down so much to come back, so I do expect a USC rout, and it's likely their offense will score more than the 34 points I originally predicted. At this point, I would be surprised if USC doesn't score 50 or even 60 points in this game. Maybe Penn State gets a couple TDs in the second half to make the score look more respectable, but I'm thinking now that something like 52-21 or even 59-21 seems likely.