Speed is a critical factor in recent BCS bowl victories!

As has been mentioned on the broadcast, speed is critical for the success of teams like USC, LSU, and Florida. This is the problem Ohio State has dealt with in it's last two Championship losses.

As a whole, the Big Ten doesn't seem to incorporate speed too much into their teams' roster construction. This is likely why Michigan, Illinois, and now Penn State have not fared well against USC - speed can be very beneficial for a team in a bowl game. The Pac-10 and the SEC seem to have more teams with better speed.

That speed has been a critical factor in USC's dominance over Penn State, just like it has been in Ohio State's last two Championship losses.

Penn State does tack on 3 more to make it 38-17, but will likely suffer a big loss.

Penn St. with a TD in the second half - a rarity against USC!

Now it's 31-13; Penn State with a TD, just the 4th second-half TD given up by USC all season.

It likely will not change the outcome of this game, unless Penn State has an excellent 4th quarter, but they at least have that positive from this game.

Just as I finish writing this up, USC strikes back with a 45-yard wide-open (like 10 yards open) TD, making it 38-13, USC.

Perhaps USC won't reach 50, but I think they are still a strong bet to roll!

Well, this 3rd quarter has been like a tennis match, with the ball going back and forth, but no one really doing much of anything in regards to the score.

Therefore, maybe presuming USC would keep scoring at will was a bit premature, but of course, USC doesn't have to score anything more to win this game, and to win this game convincingly. It's Penn State that needs to do the scoring, and they haven't done anything more than USC here in the 3rd quarter.

Maybe that 34-13 initial prediction won't be that far off after all. :-)

USC 31, Penn St. 7 at the half!

Well, it seems that my 34-13 prediction was a bit conservative, especially in regards to USC's offensive output. Penn St. would have to throw a virtual shutout to keep USC from scoring the 34 points I predicted.

It doesn't really surprise me that USC has taken charge and opened up a wide lead, but I thought Penn St. would hold their own for most or all of the first half, with USC taking charge in the second half.

A few big problems have emerged for Penn St.:

1. They have made critical mistakes in key situations, including a couple of silly penalties (offsides on the fumble recovery, personal fouls near the sidelines, etc.) That's probably partly due to their inexperience, along with the fact that they're facing a more experienced and, arguably, more talented foe.

2. Losing RB Evan Royster, who was trying to be fit with a brace, is a major blow for Penn St., as this will likely make them more one-dimensional. And while the large deficit might necessitate them throwing more in the second-half, the fact that Penn State's running attack will be largely non-existent without Royster will just aid USC's ability to depict when Penn St. will pass, and likely enable USC to be able to stop it more easily.

3. Penn St. is starting to lose their composure due to the poor first half they have played. That's why the personal fouls have been occurring, which will only hurt Penn St.'s efforts that much more.

For Penn St. to have any realistic chance to turn this game around, they need to come out strong early in the 3rd quarter and eliminate the silly mistakes they've been making. Additionally, their defense needs to play the best ball they've played this year - they can't keep allowing USC to drive the field and score TDs at will. Think about this - Penn State has nearly given up as many points (31) in one half as Ohio State gave up in the whole game against USC back in September (35). Allowing field goals at this point may be too much, but it would be a start, at least.

Personally, I think it's a question of how large the victory will be for USC; while I think Penn State could show some life early in the third quarter, it's very rare for USC to allow a team they have down so much to come back, so I do expect a USC rout, and it's likely their offense will score more than the 34 points I originally predicted. At this point, I would be surprised if USC doesn't score 50 or even 60 points in this game. Maybe Penn State gets a couple TDs in the second half to make the score look more respectable, but I'm thinking now that something like 52-21 or even 59-21 seems likely.

The GrandDaddy of them all is about to begin!

#8 (BCS) Penn St. takes on #5 (BCS) USC in Pasadena very shortly.

Penn St. finished 11-1, with their lone slip-up at Iowa; otherwise, they may have been playing for the National Title. Their most impressive victory might have been the one at Ohio State, eeking out a 13-6 victory at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

USC also finished 11-1, with their lone slip-up coming against Oregon St. on the road, 2 weeks after they embarrassed Ohio State in front of a national audience at home. They too could have easily been playing for a national title; the reason why USC is in the Rose Bowl and not Oregon St. is because of Oregon St. last regular-season of the week loss to rival Oregon.

Both teams' defenses are among the best in college football, with USC holding a bit of an edge.

While I think the game will be close early on, due to Penn State's very solid defense, I think USC's experience, more explosive offense, and the fact that they are playing essentially a home game will eventually wear down Penn State's defense and make this game a bit of a rout - 34-13, USC.